David Stern's Brand Problem: 41% of Fans Believe NBA Fixes Games

Tonight, the Boston Celtics have an opportunity to win the 2007-2008 NBA Championship against the Los Angeles Lakers. The game will likely draw huge ratings and put an exclamation point on a terrific, renaissance season for the NBA.

But not all news is good for commissioner David Stern. After the first game of the NBA Finals (and a spectacular game at that - pitting Paul Pierce against Kobe Bryant), the Tim Donaghy scandal worsened. Donaghy, who has now been under investigation by the FBI for over a year, claimed that the other referees fixed NBA games... citing a critical elimination Game 6 between the Los Angeles Lakers and Sacramento Kings (the Lakers won that game, then won Game 7 and went on to win the championship).

AdAge released a poll this week that was conducted before the Donaghy scandal - and it reveals a huge brand problem for David Stern that surely is worsened by Donaghy's claims: 41% of NBA fans say the league alters games and 26% say the Lakers-Celtics finals a setup. Wow.

Those are troubling numbers... but they are also conflict the success the NBA has seen over the past year (viewership, ticket sales, etc). And the NBA isn't the only league with problems:

- The NFL's integrity has been questioned with the Spygate scandal and the league has had a long-running problem with players and the legal trouble

- Major League Baseball's massive steroid problems were aired publicly and have ruined the era's best hitter (Barry Bonds) and best pitcher (Roger Clemens)

- The NHL has neither problem, but playoff games draw lower ratings that ESPN's rerun of past Word Series of Poker events

So does any of this really matter? Ultimately the health of the league is (mostly) predicated on talent and competition. The Donaghy scandal hasn't deterred viewers for basketball. Too many Michael Vicks and Pacman Jones haven't made the NFL any less popular. And steroids likely contributed to baseball's resurgence. The only sport lacking a major scandal is the only sport struggling to stay afloat.

For the NBA, one thing is apparent: the players drive the league. Despite Donaghy (and whatever other external events occur) - fans want to see great athletics and great athletes. As long as Kobe Bryant, Paul Pierce, Lebron James and other stars continue to play, people will continue to watch.

2008 Golden Gate Triathlon - Results and Pictures

Warning: as the title suggests, this is not a tech-related blog post... and at the risk of upsetting readers, I do that from time to time! Today, longtime friend Steuart Martens and I competed in the 2008 Golden Gate Triathlon. It is a relatively overlooked Bay Area triathlon considering that it is sandwiched between Wildflower and the San Jose International (both very big events). The course was brutally difficult - but it must be the most beautiful event in the continental United States:

- Swim: Occurs in the San Francisco Bay. You swim towards parallel to the shore, with Alcatraz behind you and the Golden Gate / Bay Bridges in the distance (depending on the direction)

- Bike: Almost entirely uphill. You go from sea-level to high in the Presidio - well above the Golden Gate's entrance. 90% of the bike is done is gear 1-1.

- Run: Along Chrissy Field and up to the Golden Gate Bridge... which includes scaling very steep steps.

Notice the beRecruited swim caps (and the shameless promotion)! We will both be wearing these during our upcoming Alcatraz swim at the end of July (will be #6 for me). Congratulations to Steuart, who placed 6th overall and won the swim leg:

More pictures after the jump

Major League Baseball's Economy 2.0 (Follow Up)

This is the first of two brief follow up posts (I was going to label them "Part II's" but they really aren't thorough enough to qualify...).

I wrote about the shifting economy in Major League Baseball and how deals are shifting towards younger players with longer, more reasonable deals. ESPN's Buster Olney (one of the reason's I'm a paid Insider subscriber) had a terrific article today. Olney opened by reinforcing my premise:

... Everything that happens seems to reinforce two essential hypotheses. No. 1: You almost never realize anything close to equal return in signing veteran players to long-term contracts. No. 2: The perceived value of young players keeps rising and rising and rising.

And then he added insights that I never could:

The industry trend, as we have seen, has been toward player development, toward drafting and shaping young players and eschewing big-money deals, and nothing that has happened this year has changed that. Some executives already have come to strongly believe the following:

• By the end of Miguel Cabrera's contract with Detroit, his $152.3 million deal will be viewed as a major mistake. • Over the duration of [Johan] Santana's contract, he will not be the kind of pitcher that the Mets paid for.

A couple things that strike me about this:

1) I love the use of the word "industry". That's what it is. And the dollars are large enough to support it.

2) Neither Cabrera's nor Santana's contracts were widely second-guessed in the off-seasons... in fact, many analysts lauded the deals.

3) The "collision course" between big veteran deals and youth extensions has happened seemingly instantly. The result is likely a very different trade deadline (now a few weeks away) and off-season free agency. Players like CC Sabathia and Mark Texiera turned down monster contracts in the hopes of getting $200m plus this off-season... those deals likely won't happen and may be well off.

All of this, in my opinion, is good for the baseball. Keeping an open-'marketplace' in tact, baseball is going to see small market teams effectively compete and to build for long-term success. Meanwhile, if the economic standards indeed shifts, there will be major consequences for striking major deals that don't work... which is a good thing.

MLB Economics 2.0 -According to Ryan Braun, Hanley Ramirez, Troy Tulowitzki and Evan Logoria

In the last few weeks, the economics of Major League Baseball (MLB) has been rewritten in a way that would make Money Ball's Billy Beane proud. MLB has seen an influx of very talented, very young players (under 27) - and general managers are forced to ask themselves whether to lock them up to big contracts now... or have them hit the open market and potentially sign far bigger deals. The players are forced to ask themselves whether to sign long-term contracts now or continue earning minimum level salaries ($100,000s / yr) until they hit the open market. It's a fascinating time for baseball.

Just a few months ago, a flurry of massive free agent deals were signed: Alex Rodriguez (32 years old): $275m / 10 years Mariano Rivera (38): $45m / 3 Mike Lowell (34): $37.5m / 3 Jose Guillen (32): $32m / 3 Francisco Corderro (33): $46m / 4 Aaron Rowand (30): $60m / 5 Torii Hunter (32): $90m / 5 Jorge Posada (36): $52m / 4

These are all enormous deals for players that will likely decline noticeably towards the end of the contracts. So while the numbers might make sense for the first part of the contract, I assure you that Jorge Posada will not be worth $13m / year when he's 39 or 40. But when a talented player hits the open market, the bidding puts *everything* in his control. Just ask Johnny Damon, Eric Gagne, Barry Zito and others...

So four teams from four non-major markets have started a new economic wave by signing their own talent to long-terms deals that are favorable for both the player and the team. The Milwaukee Brewers, Colorado Rockies, Florida Marlins and Tampa Bay Rays ALL say their talent leave to major market teams able to pay their players major dollars. To protect themselves, they paid their players handsomely (but far less than the average open-market contract) but locked them into long deals with team options for an additional 1-3 years. Those players are all in their young 20s and have yet to hit a major payday (despite making $100,000s / year). So the clubs are able to secure the future at reasonable rates (should these players be even close to top talent) and the players are able to land deals that will pay them very well... and potentially still enable them to hit the open market and fetch the big dollars:

Player Total Contract Contract / Year Age Years Ryan Braun, LF $45,000,000 $5,625,000 24 8 Hanley Ramirez,SS $70,000,000 $11,666,667 25 6 Troy Tulowitzki, SS $31,000,000 $5,166,667 24 6 Evan Longoria, 3B $17,500,000 $2,916,667 23 6

And soon enough you'll see the Red Sox do the same with Papelbon, Pedroia, Jon Lester, Bucholtz, and Ellsbury. The Yankees will sign Joba Chamberlain, Phil Hughes, and Ian Kennedy (they already signed Robinson Cano). The Mets have tied up Jose Reyes and David Wright.

Even big-market teams like the Red Sox, Mets, Yankees, Tigers, etc understand that you'd rather gamble on upside than on downside... especially when signing people on the downturn of their career can be more expensive.

And it hasn't been proven that it's easier to predict success for veteran players. A couple examples based on recent memory:

- Johnny Damon and Pedro Martinez were signed to long contracts by the Yankees and Mets respectively. Neither played as well as their Red Sox days nor has remained healthy (both are aging as well).

- Andruw Jones signed a monster contract with the Dodgers this year ($36m / 2 years). He's been horrible.

- Eric Gagne got $10m this season after hitting the open market. He leads baseball in blown saves and has relinquished his role as closer.

- Jorge Posada got big money and a four year contract from the Yankees. He's spent most of the year on the DL - and I can't imagine it will get better as he approaches 40.

Player Total Contract Contract / Year Age Years Ryan Braun, LF $45,000,000 $5,625,000 24 8 Hanley Ramirez,SS $70,000,000 $11,666,667 25 6 Troy Tulowitzki, SS $31,000,000 $5,166,667 24 6 Evan Longoria, 3B $17,500,000 $2,916,667 23 6 David Riske, RP $13,000,000 $4,333,333 31 3 Mariano Rivera, RP $45,000,000 $15,000,000 38 3 Alex Rodriguez, 3B $275,000,000 $27,500,000 32 10 Kenny Rogers, SP $8,000,000 $8,000,000 43 1 Aaron Rowand, CF $60,000,000 $12,000,000 30 5 Johan Santana, SP $137,500,000 $22,916,667 29 6 Carlos Silva, SP $48,000,000 $12,000,000 29 4 Luis Castillo, 2B $25,000,000 $6,250,000 32 4 Francisco Cordero, RP $46,000,000 $11,500,000 33 4 Octavio Dotel, RP $11,000,000 $5,500,000 34 2 Keith Foulke, RP $7,000,000 $7,000,000 35 1 Eric Gagne, RP $10,000,000 $10,000,000 32 1 Tom Glavine, SP $8,000,000 $8,000,000 42 1 Jose Guillen, RF $36,000,000 $12,000,000 32 3 Torii Hunter, CF $90,000,000 $18,000,000 32 5 Geoff Jenkins, RF $13,000,000 $6,500,000 33 2 Andruw Jones, CF $36,200,000 $18,100,000 31 2 Scott Linebrink, RP $19,000,000 $4,750,000 31 4 Mike Lowell, 3B $37,500,000 $12,500,000 34 3 Kazuo Matsui, 2B $16,500,000 $5,500,000 32 3

Buzz Bissinger, Will Leitch and the New Media of Content

Two nights ago, Bob Costas hosted Buzz Bissinger (author of Friday Night Lights), Will Leitch (founder of the web's largest sports blog, DeadSpin) and Braylon Edwards (starting wide receiver on the Cleveland Browns) on his talk show Bob Costas Now. The debate became an immediate internet sensation... which is probably shocking to stubborn-minded people like Buzz and pretty obvious to web savvy leaders like Will. Once Costas leads with the blogs vs. journalism question, Buzz Bissinger goes wild:

As the founder of beRecruited (a site and service based on user-generated content), I clearly have strong feelings about this:

1. I have met and interacted with Will Leitch on a few occasions. He is smart, articulate and has built a readership larger than most journalists can dream of.

2. You might not enjoy DeadSpin's content - but Will's blog is read nearly 1,000,000 times a day. The market has spoken.

3. More proof that the market has demanded this new media: PerezHilton has a greater readership than People Magazine - the top read magazine year after year. Old Media has followed with constant streams of news and debate. For sports, SportsCenter rolls on ESPN for 6 hours while ESPN2's First Take features (very enjoyable) debate on yesterday's topics. E!, TMZ, Access Hollywood and a dozen other shows do the same things for pop culture. Old Media has moved to constant streams: their own blogs, podcasts, radio, etc.

4A. More proof (again): beRecruited is home to one of the web's largest sports blogs, SportsWrap, which has been read more than 10,000,000 times in the last six months. Look at the server logs (a fascinating part of blogging) and you will notice that people arrive on SportsWrap seeking new breaking news, commentary, and very particular (often strange) tidbits of information. In the last 120 seconds on SportsWrap, users came from Google looking for the following (and this just a small slice of the data):

Candace Parker Tattoo akin ayodele traded to the Miami Dolphins Best Air Jordans Lemans Crash Peyton Manning going insane on the sidelines Mark Jackson Knicks Coach High school football highlihts Paul Pierce fined Atlanta Hawks scorekeeper Maria

4B. Why the market demands this media: once-a-week publications like Sports Illustrated now serve a different purpose than news-breaking sources. SI is the pinnacle of sports reading and I continue to be a subscriber... despite having not found once piece of 'breaking' news in the last few years (it's always already broken and available). I read SI for the writing and commentary - I get my news through other sources: the web, mobile, podcasts, radio, etc. Here is a great example.

Dr. Z (one of the great NFL writers) published his NFL Draft Preview last week in SI. This used to be *the* way to prepare for the draft. Dr. Z is one of the most connected NFL gurus, but has to publish the article days before the draft begins. His results weren't pretty:

- 1 correct pick in the top 10 - 4 correct picks in the top 31 (first round) - predicted 5 wide receivers would go in the first round... not a single WR was picked

I am not critiquing Dr. Z. Rather, I am demonstrating that this new media that Buzz despises has value. We correctly predicted the top 6 picks in the NFL draft on SportsWrap and InGameNow. Does that make us smarter than Dr. Z? Absolutely not. But it does demonstrate the power of constant connectivity.

5. Buzz and Costas clearly don't understand how blogs work. Their attacks on Will were predicated on comments and commenters. Community is unique to blogs and, in my opinion, one of the major reasons that new media content has grown so quickly. An article on DeadSpin might only be a couple hundred words - but the dialog can go on with hundreds of comments and is fascinating. Sometimes its intelligent. Sometimes it's crass. But they are comments, not Op Eds.

6. Braylon Edwards comments on the panel also bugged me. First, like it or not, this isn't the 1960s. Athletes make $10,000,000s - and a good deal of that contract inflation is due to increased media, promotion, awareness, etc... the web plays a major part there. Second, technology is everywhere. Be aware of it. Matt Leinart is a very rich celebrity athlete (and he revels in his celebrity). He should be more than aware that people have cameras and access to publish content... he should consider this before publicly doing beer bongs with herds of females. People should think about this before publishing photos to their own MySpace and Facebook profiles.

7. Another example of why Bob Costas and Buzz Bissinger don't get it: for two smart people, they failed to get their message through effectively and caused massive backlash. Even if you agree with their sentiment (and you're more than welcome to do so) - they didn't deliver the argument well and probably caused a greater divide than existed previously. Bissinger has become an internet celebrity for all the wrong reasons: he surged to the top 10 google searches, had his wikipedia page vandalized throughout the day (hysterical stuff too) and has become the model for old-world thought 'leadership'.

An excerpt from his new Wikipedia entry, which sadly seems very accurate:

H. G. "Buzz" Bissinger (born November 1, 1954, in New York City) is a pompous windbag. He is also an American journalist.

Most recently Bissinger appeared on an HBO's Bob Costas On The Record to discuss the evergrowing sports media landscape. Bissinger then proceeded to make an ass out of himself and lose all credibility what so ever. His journalist tag has now been revoked.

ESPN Knows Online – ESPN360 and ESPN Podcasts

I think ESPN and their online efforts go overlooked - mostly because they are so dominant on television and radio. But I have been *very* impressed with their online efforts recently:

Podcasts: The have the best podcasts on iTunes – by quantity and quality. ESPN podcasts are updated daily. Production quality is high. In my queue:

- Pardon the Interruption with Tony Kornheiser and Michael Wilbon - Around the Horn video - The Thundering Herd with Colin Cowherd - The Best of Mike and Mike - ESPN Fantasy Focus - The BS Report with Bill Simmons - Stephen A Smith Show

Notice anything about this list? Most of the content is available on traditional format (television and radio) – yet ESPN is glad to give it away for free online (with ad support and sponsorship). Seems simple - but few other major brands are doing this.

ESPN360.com: Love it. If you haven’t used ESPN360.com – try it out. Streaming, real-time games for all ESPN network games. It’s phenomenal and, on some late work nights, it’s allowed me to watch Duke games. The quality is great and, like their podcasts, it’s groundbreaking in that no other networks stream all of their on-air content…. Live!

The Season of Blockbuster Deals: Web 2.0 vs. The NBA

2008 has already seen a flurry of massive deals on the web and the hardwood basketball courts. So which has had the more eventful and impactful month? Let's compare:

LA Lakers Acquire Paul Gasol Microsoft Acquires Danger

The Lakers have had a terrific 2007-2008 NBA season, but with Andrew Bynum's recent injury, lacked front-court muscle... so they made one of the most lopsided trades in NBA history: exchanging Kwame Brown and some other throw-ins for Paul Gasol. The Spurs were so upset (and scared) by the trade, that they cried foul to the league and the press (think Google's reaction to Microsoft / Yahoo). The Lakers improved themselves so drastically and so unexpectedly, that the West's top two teams reacted with their own blockbuster trades.

Microsoft has Apple-envy. Their mp3 and mobile efforts haven't been nearly as successful as the crew in Cupertino... and while the iPhone has already moved ahead of Windows Mobile, MS realizes that they have to improve their web presence if they are to win the mobile battle. Meanwhile, Yahoo is launching new mobile products and Google has their own vaunted mobile strategy launching shortly. Danger is the oft-forgotten design company that created the very-slick Sidekick - and if MS is to play with the big boys, Danger could be the right player.

Winner: I love the Microsoft acquisition, but the Lakers got away with the most lopsided trade in NBA history... Not only is Gasol is terrific, but he came at no cost.

Phoenix Suns Acquire Shaq Microsoft Offers to Acquire Yahoo

Less than a week after their bitter rival acquired Gasol, the Suns made one of the NBA's largest and most surprising trades: swapping All Star Shawn Marion (and Marcus Banks) for Shaq. Shaq is one of the all-time NBA greats (he has four championship rings), but is on the decline (see Yahoo). Meanwhile, Phoenix is rolling with the West's second best record, but needed to rid themselves of Shawn Marion (selfish and egotistical) while adding a force down-low (Shaq). The Suns have been criticized for such a drastic move (see Microsoft) - but they realized that playoff basketball is far more physical and they believe that, with the right team, Shaq still has plenty of gas left (see Yahoo).

Microsoft is the perennial power who can't seem to win on the web (MS:Phoenix as Google:San Antonio)... so they took a gamble on an aging brand that, despite it's recent decline, is still one of the web's top destinations. It's a massive gamble - MS is effectively saying that, while neither they nor Yahoo can compete with Google directly, they are a worthy competitor if combined. Google clearly is scared (see Dallas Mavericks) and rushed to issue a public statement and woo Yahoo's search business.

Winner: Both moves have been remarkably criticized... but at the end of the day, Shaq's $20mm/yr salary comes off Phoenix's book in two years. If a MS / Yahoo merger is a disaster, that likely won't come off the books for ages.

Dallas Mavericks Move to Acquire Jason Kidd Google Rumored to Acquire Bebo

The Dallas Mavericks and New Jersey Nets agreed in principle to trade aging superstar Jason Kidd for budding star Jason Terry (and several salary dumps). The move was clearly reactionary (and perhaps rash) as their competition got much better in the matter of a few days. The Mavericks traded the future for the present - a risky proposition for web tycoon Mark Cuban. Meanwhile, the Nets did well in the trade as it affords them the ability to completely rehaul their team by dumping salaries and effectively buying future flexibility. **The trade is being held up because Devean George has refused to play in New Jersey

Google is rumored to be acquiring social network Bebo for $1B. If the Mavericks moved to acquire their own superstar as a response to moves by LA and Phoenix, Google supposed acquisition of Bebo would be a response to the massive success of Facebook (who has a deal with Microsoft) and the still-growing-strong MySpace (owned by NewsCorp). Google has Orkut - but Bebo is larger, sexier, and recently opened their own platform (which I love by the way).

Winner: Neither deal is complete, but I am not sold that Jason Kidd is a fit with the Mavericks. Meanwhile, Google has struggled to monetize MySpace and is releasing their Open Social platform... owning Bebo would enable them to improve monetization on social-networks and give Open Social a huge launching pad.

beRecruited Partners with ESPN on NCAA's National Signing Day

Over the last couple years, NCAA Football's National Signing Day has become a big business. ESPN aired all-day coverage on ESPNU and ESPN2. Online, ESPN simulcast the entire broadcast on ESPN Video and reported real-time via ESPN.com and ESPN Insider (have I mentioned enough properties?!). This was the perfect day for beRecruited to team up with ESPN - after all, our goal is to connect athletes, coaches and colleges.

Throughout the day and on ESPN's properties, beRecruited was featured in various placements - from ESPN.com's recruiting classes to ESPN2's "Who's Your Daddy Segment" (my personal favorite).

It was also exciting to see some of beRecruited's most prominent football players be mentioned nationally and see significant online traffic today due to the ESPN broadcast.

video footage:

photo:

NCAA National Signing Day