Amazon Kindle + iPod Touch Tablet + Netbooks...?

Three related meme's have gathered steam this week: 1. Q4 2008 and 2009: Year of the Netbook 2. The large form Apple Touch 3. Memo to Jeff Bezos: My interest in the Kindle is waning

So what do these all have to do with one another?

Simple: it's a race to be the first great, dominant netbook. After all, that's really what a large screen iPhone / iPod Tablet would be. And to a degree, it's what the missing ingredient for the Amazon Kindle. And the form factor of the Touch and the Kindle are what current netbooks are missing.

I love the prospects of the Kindle (and I love Amazon...), but Apple has the inside edge here. Turning the iPhone or Touch into a tablet is far easier than converting the Kindle or recomposing current netbooks. Furthermore, Apple already has thousands of apps to launch with (adding content and gaming) and can turn iTunes into an Amazon eBooks competitor.

Hulu's Lazy Sunday: Family Guy & Saturday Night Live Clips?

I love Hulu. Hulu understands the web, delivers great quality, the experience is simple, and understands both search and portability.... better than any other video site on the web.

When YouTube hit it big, much credit was given to Saturday Night Live's Lazy Sunday video - and appropriately so. Hulu hasn't had a Lazy Sunday equivalent - in part because hit videos are now distributed across numerous sources and players. But Hulu did see big growth thanks to the election and the subsequent Sarah Palin hit videos (thank you Tina Fey).

While Hulu can't point to a single video, it can look to Family Guy, American Dad and Saturday Night Live. Hulu sorts videoes by time (all time, week, day, etc) and type (episodes and clips).

For episodes, Fox cartoons account for nearly 100% of the most popular videos:

Today's most watched: 8/8 episodes are Family Guy This week's most watched: 7/8 episodes are Family Guy This month's most watched: 5/8 episodes are Family Guy, 1/8 is The Simpsons All time most watched: 8/8 Family Guy

For clips (usually four minutes and less), Saturday Night Live represents the majority: Today's most watched: 4/8 are SNL This week's most watched: 6/8 clips are SNL This month's most watched: 7/8 are SNL All time most watched: 7/8 are SNL

I understand why SNL dominates Hulu Clips - great content intended to be digested in "clip" format. But I am surprised that Hulu episodes are dominated by a single source... after all, Hulu has great diversity. I have never watched an episode of American Dad or Family Guy on Hulu, but I have watched Arrested Development and The Office... and I would expect that similar shows appeal to larger demographics. This suggests one (or all) of the following:

- As consumers move from viewing clips to full episodes, shows like Family Guy are best suited for that shift (less plot, more one-liners) - Hulu's core user base is younger (according to Quantcast, 50% of viewers are under 34) - Cartoons are simply more viral

Regardless, I hope that Hulu continues to onboard all types of content... after all, I believe Hulu is a key to bringing the internet to the television.

Craigslist, eBay & Amazon: 2008 Trending & Site Efficiency

I've always been struck by the different experiences Craigslist, Amazon and eBay offer. For certain needs and products, each has it's own positives / negatives. For instance, all of our household products (from toiletries to electronics to groceries) are purchased on Amazon; our time sensitive and high-value products are sold on Craiglist; and our unique products are bought / sold on eBay. As 2008 wraps up today, I plotted data from each of those big three against each other. The results are fascinating.

Unique Visitors

eBay entered 2008 more than twice the size of Craigslist and 33% larger than Amazon. But while eBay dropped significantly and Amazon flattened - Craigslist grew from less than 30m monthly uniques to over 40m... approaching the traditional big boys. But both eBay and Amazon saw huge growth in Q4 while Craigslist (which is not an ideal experience for end-of-season shopping) flattened. Interesting questions arise out of this:

- How large a role does holiday pricing and incentives play for Amazon and eBay? - Conceptually, eBay and Craigslist shouldn't see drastically different swings in Q4... so marketing budgets must be in play? - Will Amazon pass eBay in December (after a record month)?

Pageviews per Visit

This is the most interesting analysis: Craigslist users view over 50 pages per session, eBay users ~25 and Amazon users ~12. A couple reasons why:

- First, listing on Craigslist has become increasingly more cumbersome. To list a single item can take over seven steps. The same can be said for eBay. - Second, the finding experience on Craigslist and eBay is predicated on hunting for values... back and forth through search results. - Meanwhile, Amazon is the king of targeted search results and streamlined purchasing

... which leads to me to conclude that this data is more of an example of efficiency than of stickiness. Amazon is more than twice as efficient as eBay and four times as efficient as Craigslist.

That same trend is evident in minutes spent on these sites per month. The trends are nearly identical and again speak to the efficiency of the sites:

I Lost My Comments Installing the New Disqus & Facebook Connect

Some good news:You can now comment on this blog using Facebook Connect and Seesmic. I upgraded versions of Disqus to enable it (very slick).

Some bad news: While installing the new Disqus version, I encountered some issues and lost all of my existing comments. Yup. I was struggling to upgrade Disqus versions because it kept reverting to the "legacy version"... so I exported my comments in the XML file and then uninstalled Disqus. I assumed that, since there is a function to export via XML, there would be the ability to import via XML.

I haven't yet figured out how to import my existing comments - in fact, I am worried that it's not possible (I've dug through the Disqus interface a fair amount... even posted to the forums).

Anyone have advice on how to solve this?! Of course, you can leave it below using Facebook Connect!

2009 Predictions: iPhone Gaming Will Replace Nintendo and Sony

My 20 Digital Media Predictions for 2009 series continues with a story (The Dream iPhone) that tangentially sits atop Techmeme at the moment. Most of the talk about the below iPhone v2 mock ups are about the full keyboard. My initial take was around the Nintendo-Gameboy-like controller: A/B buttons and control pad:

While I do not think that mocked up 'joystick-lite' is the solution, it brings me to one of my 2009 Predictions:

iPhone Gaming Will Progress Beyond Novelty

I've written before about the iPhone's rapid destruction of handheld gaming systems (sorry Sony PSP, Nintendo DS, and others). Portable gaming systems are struggling as the iPhone (and others) offer full gaming consoles within a phone, messaging system and internet device. How can the PSP and DS compete?

Right now, they are only competing on game quality, which comes in two forms:

1. Production quality (titles, graphics, etc) 2. Control quality (the DS for instance offers a more engaging, hands-on experience)

Currently, the iPhone is taking market share because its price point and ease of use. It has yet to truly compete on game quality because, like it or not, the games are all novelties. The games have solid graphics (not amazing - but consumers don't expect a portable PS3) - but the game-play is generally weak: tilt the phone and move jerkily right, left, forward, backward. This is fun for a little - but doesn't offer longterm game-play. In the current format, will a Mario Brothers or Madden Football exist? Simply put: no.

But in 2009, game-play will be solved and we will be willing to fork over $10.00 - $25.00 for big titles that offer extended play.

Someone will figure out how to add a control pad atop the screen. Someone will figure out how to layer that with the accelerometer. Someone will figure out how to make successful titles like Madden Football, Metroid, Mario, Little Big Planet, etc iPhone compatible. The Gameboy solved it for years and iPhone developers will do it in 2009... beating Nintendo and Sony in the process.

beRecruited Featured in Guam's Pacific Daily News

A few days after beRecruited's feature in the Wall Street Journal is the below mention from Guam's Pacific Daily News. The article profiles a local softball player - MeiLani Quintanilla - who received a scholarship to play at Calumet in Indiana. Quintanilla was found via beRecruited:

"I was really shocked," Quintanilla said. "I didn't think that I would get a chance to play at all. I had to recheck my e-mail to see if it was really my account. It was surreal."

Crimson Wave softball coach Tom Fickett sent the e-mail. After Quintanilla replied, Fickett called her and offered a year-to-year scholarship later that month. She said she has partial academic and athletic scholarships to attend Calumet, which participates in the NAIA. She said she will serve as a utility player.

...

The opportunity presented itself after a motherly intervention. Lillian Quintanilla, MeiLani's mother, posted a profile of her daughter on a Web site called beRecruited. The site states that it can be used as a tool to connect high school students with college coaches.

MeiLani Quintanilla's mother was also her softball coach in her senior year at George Washington High School. Lillian Quintanilla knew that if she wanted her daughter to play college softball, she would have to do something different because coaches in the U.S. mainland rarely come to Guam to scout athletes.

She said that she did her research online and found the beRecruited site. She then posted a profile of her daughter, and Fickett read it.

"It was good information," Fickett said via telephone from Whiting. "I really liked the grades academically as strongly as athletics. I saw that she was award winning."

2009 Predictions: More Huffington Posts and Daily Beasts

First there was the Drudge Report.Now there is the Huffington Post. ... And Politico. ... And The Daily Beast.

And as part of my 20 Digital Media Predictions for 2009 series, I am suggesting that there will be others that successfully break into this space.

Why? Because five themes are at work here:

1. For the most part, the major news sources aren't yet hip to online traffic and marketing... that leaves a major opportunity for upstart, web savvy online content players who aggregate and create news.

2. It is (relatively) easy to drive traffic in these formats... and it is scalable. With the right team, it is possible to achieve large numbers quickly.

3. Consumers like their content aggregated and they like it delivered in blog-like formats (real-time, easily digestible, full of links).

4. Launching is affordable as it requires little up-front costs (development, dollars, etc). Meanwhile, data is easily accessible such that the business model and audience appetite can be assessed before warranting a full investment / resourcing.

5. Verticals fetch advertising dollars. And this trend will become more apparent in 2009.

2009 Predictions: Online Video Habits Will Grow Behind Hulu

This is the first in the twenty-part series of my “2009 Digital Media Predictions”… with twenty predictions of course. Each segment is going to add color to one of the predictions from the initial list. And while I have no idea how long this project will take (hopefully it’s completed before 2010) – it certainly keeps me focused. You'll be able to follow all of the predictions here.

Prediction:Video will grow further as people’s appetite for online content moves significantly beyond 30-90 second clips

The success of internet video – and decline of traditional television - has been credited with the dwindling attention span of viewers. The sweet spot for a YouTube clip, for instance, is less than 150 seconds.

And while many argue that this is because we have become less engaged, attentive consumers, I’ll take a different approach: It’s too damn hard for the layman to create good content that lasts over 150 seconds. It either is too difficult to produce or too difficult to remain interesting. Likely both.

But Hulu’s success has proven that we are willing to sit in front of our computers for entire programs. And as CBS Interactive, Fox, YouTube HD and others continue to produce high quality content - our viewing habits will mature. More content is moving online… and more importantly, more high-quality is moving online. As our bandwidth and screens support it – so too will our taste and willingness to watch it. And as these trends change, it will pave the way for computers and online content in the living room.

20 Predictions for Digital Media in 2009

With the new year fast approaching, I've put together a list of 20 digital media trends I predict in the forthcoming year. I plan to write specific posts about each - so for now, these are just headlines:

- Digital Media properties will be significantly more aggressive with online advertising - ... Facebook in particular - iPhone Gaming Will Progress Beyond Novelty - Mobile Apps will find a price point beyond free or $0.99 - iPhone Apps become the MySpace of the music and movie industries: part of every marketing campaign - Android's popularity will require hit hardware... which will take longer than anticipated - Talk of an Amazon + eBay and/or Amazon + Netflix will surface... and make sense - Subscription services will become more common / popular - Online gaming becomes even bigger as people seek free entertainment; makes a dent on traditional video game industry - Acquisitions will be based on break-even and profitable start-ups - "Burn rate" will be the hot buzz word - The mantra "What's Old is New" will ring true - Some companies will distinguish themselves as winners during the downturn thanks to well-positioned services (The Ladders, BillShrink, etc) - In-Video advertising will grow... and begin to work - Video will grow further as people's appetite for online content moves significantly beyond 30-90 second clips - Several roll-ups of small/medium sized content players - A handful of Huffington Post Clones will emerge... successfully - Verticals with deep targetting will succeed... more than properties that are very wide but shallow - There will be a major winner in Behavioral Targetting and Cookie Exchanges - Major content properties (ie newspapers, ESPN) focus sites to push personalities atop headlines