2011: The Year of Chrome & Android (2011 Predictions)

To see more of my 2011 tech predictions - click here Google Chrome and Android are both fast growing: Chrome now has 120m users and Android continues its march towards mobile OS leadership.

Google's clear goal - and it's working! - is to power the web. Android with mobile and Chrome now with the web browser, machine (laptops) and desktop (apps and extensions). And Google's TV strategy is in motion as well... Our day-to-day computing activity occurs in the browser, in the cloud and on the go (mobile and laptop).... Google Apps (Calendar, Docs, Gmail) represent that shift.

The point was driven home in MG Siegler's recent review of the new Chrome OS CR-48 laptop:

I know that personally, roughly 95 percent of what I do on a computer these days is in the web browser. Of the other 5 percent, 4 percent of it could probably be done in the browser too (light image editing, taking notes, etc). The other one percent is more difficult but those are mainly things (iTunes media management, Photoshop) that I only need to do some of the time and can use a desktop machine for.

And based on Android's growth and strategy (cross device / hardware), there is little reason to believe that Chrome will not follow... and probably at a faster growth rate. For developers, Chrome represents a distribution opportunity via the browser and app store. And we have seen that hardware folks are open to new operating systems (albeit slow) if it represents a new price, new marketing angle, etc.

Thus far, I have not been impressed with Google's Chrome Web Store. Thus far, the applications aren't entirely different than specialized webpages. But the concept is powerful and the quality of content will improve as developers move towards the platform and a couple winning applications emerge.... sound like the early days of Android? It should... and that's why Google will find similar success here.

So if 2011 is the year of Chrome and Android - Apple and Microsoft have something to worry about.

It's All About the Living Room (2011 Predictions)

To see more of my 2011 tech predictions - click here This will be the year where the internet finally makes it's way into the living room... and I don't mean as a laptop or iPad as you watch television. For many homes, the TV is already the focal point of the living room and it's been a matter of time before the web and the television hook up in an intelligent, simple way. To date, this has mostly been accomplished by bulky solutions geared towards techies: ie connecting a Mac Mini to the television. But all the trends point towards 2011 being the year that the living room begins to go digital in a more mainstream way: - Television prices have gone way down. You can now buy gorgeous, large TVs for under $1,000 (less than many laptops). Those TVs have numerous inputs are are plug-and-play for other connected devices.

- You can spend more and get an internet connected television... which comes equipped with widgets, apps, etc.

- The content is there: Netflix and Pandora and beloved by millions. Along with a growing number of other great apps and content sources (ie: ESPN3, Hulu, Xfinity.tv, etc) - the web plays an important role in your media consumption. This trend will continue in a massive way (which is why folks like Comcast and ESPN are racing to address it).

- External devices are readily available, relatively inexpensive and are easily integrated: Google TV, Boxee, Apple TV, etc.

- The web now runs in the air. Think about most of your daily computing needs (certainly those that would run on the TV): email, browsing, search, light documents, Facebook, etc. All of this can be done from a browser and does not require a fancy machine... thus enabling lightweight 'computers' like the Google TV to be super effective.

- Someone(s) will figure out more compelling ways to watch TV... which is becoming a passive activity (our TV is frequently on but I am rarely ever fully engaged). Google TV is close: the screen-in-screen approach is compelling. The solution may be appearance related (ie Google TV) or perhaps activity (ie GetGlue, Facebook integration, etc). Whatever it looks like - there is lots of opportunity for innovation... and our TV-watching habits encourage it.

It's All About Personalization (2011)

Two years ago (somehow it's been that long), I gave 20 predictions for digital media & e-commerce in 2009. This year, I am going to do it slightly differently and write individual posts about various themes / predictions in 2011. You can follow them at the tag "predictions". Today's is simple: it's all about personalization. I was reminded this yesterday while spending the day at the-very-exciting ShoeDazzle (note: Polaris is an investor, and you can see more about ShoeDazzle on TechCrunch TV). ShoeDazzle has built a business in part on great product, in part on a great & differentiated shopping experience, and also in part on the power of personalized & social shopping.

And I was reminded again this morning by an email from Gilt Group which looks different than their ordinary daily emails. Rather than a list of today's deals, the email noted items available for my specific shoe size (based on a Gilt purchase months ago). Among a slew of unread emails (some important, some not; some shopping, some personal) - Gilt's stood out because it spoke directly to me.

And as folks' like Gilt look for ways to resonate with their customers, drive conversion efficiency and optimize everything from the experience to search results to the pixel's creating an ad unit... personalization will be the differentiator. In addition, personalization has the opportunity to improve more than the middle of the funnel (conversions) - it can affect the top of the funnel through virality.

Facebook, Twitter and the loads of data that we each produce (and the companies sit atop) enable personalization is ways that previously were not possible. Some of those solutions are out-of-the-box scripts and widgets - others will be baked directly into the product, experience and brand.

If it wasn't a core discussion for you in 2010, personalization should be in 2011. And it should be a discussion for each component of the organization: what does it mean for:

- Product - User acquisition: advertising, virality and social - Conversions & retention: email marketing, search, customer support, landing pages

"Social Top Ups with Facebook"... Not by Facebook

Here is an example of why it is important to pay attention to an advertisement's provider: I stared at this ad for quite some time and wondered what Facebook's Social Top Ups product was. Turns out it is NOT a new Facebook promotion to drive Credits, international usage, etc. Turns out it IS a developer's product (Social TopUps) and their ad unit is made to look like a Facebook product (not sure this is / should be allowed). If you dig in, the ad creative is similar to Facebook's mark(s) but at much lower quality... and the app's landing page describes the product:

"Roamware's Social TopUps Service allows a Facebook user to directly recharge a mobile subscriber's prepaid mobile phone in another country, as long as their mobile network operator is a participating carrier in this Service."

I suspect the ad unit converted terrifically from impression to click. And it probably lead to higher-than-average install rates... but the unit is sneaky and yet another example of why it is important to pay attention to the source of ads (on Google, Facebook, etc).

McDonald's Buys Facebook Ads to Ask, "Would You Check-In?"

McDonald's is currently buying sponsored ads on Facebook to ask whether you "would check-in at a McDonald's restaurant". Considering that McDonald's does not currently provide offers for checking-in via Facebook Places, this appears to be a survey campaign. At the time of the screenshot, over 20,000 Facebook users completed the survey. ~30% of those users have already check-in to McDonald's (hard to believe?) and 43% would do so for a "good" deal.

This is not surprising: we know that people love discounts and anything with the word "free".

It is a different approach to advertising alongside Facebook Deals. Starbucks and H&M have run campaigns promoting their deals - McDonald's might well do that in the future, but for now it is more of a branded research project.

Facebook Now Advertising "Facebook Deals" to iPhone Users

Last week I wrote about how both Starbucks and H&M are beginning to advertise their Facebook Deals / Facebook Places campaigns. Now Facebook itself is advertising the Deals Platform:

"Find Deals on Facebook: Checking in on Places can get great deals nearby. Find specials wherever you see a yellow icon in the Facebook for iPhone app."

Like Starbucks and H&M, this ad is targeting consumers and aims to drive check-ins... which in turn can also be considered a promotion for the deal providers (ie Starbucks, H&M, etc). Also interesting:

1) the ad specifically targets iPhone users - I wonder if there is an Android specific campaign? 2) the ad expands into a video. Facebook has been releasing high-quality videos for each of their new products (example here)

Landing page:

3 Dogpatch Companies in RWW's Top 10 Startups of 2010

Today tech blog ReadWriteWeb wrote about the Top 10 Startups of 2010. Three Dogpatch Labs San Francisco companies made that list: Instagram, Learnboost and Rapportive. I have copied a small excerpt about each company but encourage you to read the entire post:

Instagram: Photo Sharing Goes Viral i can't look at my Twitter or Facebook stream without seeing a flurry of shared links from Instagram. And I even confessed in October, the app has made me an iPhone photo addict. The free app allows users to snap photos, apply one of 11 filters, and then quickly and easily publish them to a variety of social networks, as well as follow, comment, and like within the app itself....

Rapportive: The Gmail Plug-in I Am Thankful for Every Day Marshall Kirkpatrick wrote this headline back in March: "Stop What You Are Doing & Install This Plug-in: Rapportive. And honestly, I'd issue the same command today. Rapportive replaces the ads in your Gmail side bar - which is cool enough right there - but then, it fills that space with a wealth of info - a picture of the person who sent you an email, their job title from LinkedIn, recent Twitter messages they've sent and more...

LearnBoost: Bringing the Teacher Gradebook to the Web with Open Source Like Hipmunk, LearnBoost is tackling a space that may not be particularly sexy - Web-based classroom administration tools. But tracking grades and attendance is an important, if not cumbersome, responsibility of teachers, many of whom still use the paper-and-pencil gradebook for record-keeping...

Comcast Uses Xfinity.TV and iPhone, iPad App to Move Online, Counter Netflix & Hulu

It is popular to hate Comcast: mostly because so many of us spend lots of money with them ... and have few choices otherwise. Between cable, internet and phone, the monthly Comcast bill can be one of your largest recurring payments (behind house / rent and car). But let's give Comcast some credit: they are releasing better products (even if it should have happened sooner). Two examples:

1. Xfinity.tv: effectively Comcast's on-demand product with a deeper library and access to your home DVR. Quality is excellent and the library is extensive. For Comcast subscribers, this makes you think twice about Hulu Pro and Netflix (additional monthly bills). Also worth noting: Xfinity.tv does a pretty good job integrating Facebook and works very well on Google TV:

2. Comcast's iPhone & iPad Applications

It arrived much later than DirecTV's - but the applications are certainly useful. It has several features which are probably unused for most (Comcast email, phone, etc), but the TV Guide and DVR control are great. And for the Xfinity application, the ability to control your television is terrific (and is a challenge to high end bluetooth / IR remote control systems).

These two products (and the ad campaigns supporting them) demonstrate that Comcast is thinking / worried about the migration from TV to web, mobile and tablet. It also demonstrates the impact that Netflix, Hulu and others represent.

Facebook Testing New Ad Format With Groupon?

As Facebook ramps its own Deal platform, it appears as though they might be testing a new ad unit / format with the web's leading deal provider: Groupon. The following ad appears as a Facebook sponsored unit on the main page and is essentially a mini feed post includes:

- the friend's / purchaser's name - the exact same text as Groupon's automated feed post (see the feed screenshot below) - the Groupon deal's image and location - has a unique three button base that allows for comments, likes and "Deals" .... that "Deals" link goes directly to the Groupon page and also appears on the feed post (like a custom application link)

The ad itself is hyper relevant: - time (expiring) - relationship (my friend) - and location (specific to me - I imagine I would NOT get an ad for a Minneapolis deal).

I wonder how automated the buying and publishing is... and I wonder if it is a sign of an ad platform being built directly into the Facebook Applications platform. From the look of it, it appears that could be true.

The Facebook Sponsored Ad Unit

The Feed Post for that Same Groupon Deal